Vista la situació política d’Alemanya i França no em puc estar de reproduir unes paraules de Karl Popper, en una conversa amb Konrad Lorenz dirigida pel periodista Franz Kreuzer:

Kreuzer: ¿Esta impresionante refutación de un optimismo demasiado ingenuo justifica el pesimismo?

Popper: No. Todo lo contrario. Todo lo contrario. Es una invitación a ver las posibilidades y a aprovechar las ocasiones. Eso es lo que es. No hay motivo en absoluto para ser pesimistas. De hecho yo veo el mayor peligro precisamente en el pesimismo, esto es, en la continua pretensión de decirles a los jóvenes que están viviendo en un mundo malo. Eso es lo que yo considero el mayor pelrigro de nuestro tiempo; mayor incluso que la bomba atómica. Hacer creer a la gente que vivimos en un mundo malo, en un mundo hipócrita y no sé cuantas cosas más. Desde un punto de vista histórico vivimos, a mi juicio, en el mejor mundo que ha existido nunca. Naturalmente que es un mundo malo, porque hay otro mejor y porque la vida nos incita a buscar mejores mundos. Y a nosotros nos toca continuar esa búsqueda de un mundo mejor. Pero ello no significa que el nuestro sea malo. En realidad el mundo no sólo es hermoso, sino que los jóvenes tienen hoy día la posibilidad de conteplarlo como no habían podido hacerlo nunca. Y eso es enormemente importante.

El porvenir está abierto.
Conversación de Altenberg y textos del simposio sobre Popper celebrado en Viena

Ja estic online. Avui el tècnic de Numericable m’ha instal·lat el “mòdem”. M’ha costat explicar-li que el seu CD d’instal·lació per a windows no funcionaria al meu PC, però bé… ja navego. ;-)

Ja sóc a Tolosa! Duc uns dies anant i tornant d’Ikea, muntant mobles, netejant el meu nou pis de 22m2 (molt dignes, per cert) etc. etc. etc.

Dimecres que ve vindran activar-me la connexió a internet per cable. Fins llavors no podré llegir els mails. Per coses importants telefoneu-me. Tinc el mòbil espanyol activat.

Fa uns dies en jmones va titular una nota amb el mateix títol que jo utilitzo avui. No és casualitat, en la seva nota en jmones criticava les estupideses que Cory Doctorow havia escrit en un article sobre DRM, estupideses que ens preocupen ja que resten credibilitat al moviment del copyleft.

Doncs avui a BoingBoing tornen a publicar una animalada monumental: Katrina’s real name: global warming. Pur sensacionalisme climàtic. Aquesta manca de rigor fa molt de mal als que lluitem en contra de l’escalfament global de la Terra.

Si voleu escoltar opinions més sensates us recomano el següent podcast de ScienceFriday: Hurricane Katrina: Hurricane Science and Prediction, aquest fantàstic article de Real Cimate, Hurricanes and Global Warming - Is There a Connection?, o l’informe de l’IPCC que diu:

9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones

Some of the global climate models suggest an increase in tropical storm intensities with CO2-induced warming (Krishnamurti et al., 1998), though a limitation of that study is the short two year model run. However, the highest resolution global climate model experiment reported to date (Bengtsson et al., 1996; see Chapter 10) still has a resolution too coarse (about 1°) to simulate the most intense storms or realistically simulate structures such as the hurricane eye.

Indices of tropical cyclone activity (Gray, 1979) summarise the necessary large-scale conditions for tropical cyclone activity from coarse resolution GCMs (Evans and Kempisty, 1998; Royer et al., 1998). The latter study examined large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions (vertical shear, vorticity and thermo-dynamic stability), and suggested that only small changes in the tropical cyclone frequencies would occur (up to a 10% increase in the Northern Hemisphere primarily in the north-west Pacific, and up to a 5% decrease in the Southern Hemisphere). Climate change studies to date show a great sensitivity to the measure of convective activity chosen, and depend less on the model produced fields. Additionally, the broad geographic regions of cyclogenesis, and therefore also the regions affected by tropical cyclones, are not expected to change significantly (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1998). This is because results from Holland’s (1997) Maximum Potential Intensity model show that even with substantial (1 to 2°C) SST increases in the tropics from global warming, one would also get a correspondingly much bigger warming in the upper troposphere leading to very little change in the moist static stability (Holland, 1997). Another study shows areas of deep convection that can be associated with tropical cyclone formation would not expand with increases in CO2 due to an increase of the SST threshold for occurrence of deep convection (Dutton et al., 2000). Additionally, since tropical storm activity in most basins is modulated by El Niño/La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, projections of future regional changes in tropical storm frequencies may depend on accurate projections of future El Niño conditions, an area of considerable uncertainty for climate models (as noted in Section 9.3.5.2).

En altres paraules, malgrat la recerca està encara molt verda, fet que s’ha de tenir molt present, s’espera un lleuger augment de l’activitat però no grans canvis. Què us sembla ara el titular de BoingBoing?

Actualització: Acabo d’afegir l’article de RealClimate. Com que em fa mandra modificar la meva nota, us afegeixo aquí alguns paràgrafs destacats:

Due to this semi-random nature of weather, it is wrong to blame any one event such as Katrina specifically on global warming - and of course it is just as indefensible to blame Katrina on a long-term natural cycle in the climate.

Yet this is not the right way to frame the question. As we have also pointed out in previous posts, we can indeed draw some important conclusions about the links between hurricane activity and global warming in a statistical sense. The situation is analogous to rolling loaded dice: one could, if one was so inclined, construct a set of dice where sixes occur twice as often as normal. But if you were to roll a six using these dice, you could not blame it specifically on the fact that the dice had been loaded. Half of the sixes would have occurred anyway, even with normal dice. Loading the dice simply doubled the odds. In the same manner, while we cannot draw firm conclusions about one single hurricane, we can draw some conclusions about hurricanes more generally. In particular, the available scientific evidence indicates that it is likely that global warming will make - and possibly already is making - those hurricanes that form more destructive than they otherwise would have been.

But ultimately the answer to what caused Katrina is of little practical value. Katrina is in the past. Far more important is learning something for the future, as this could help reduce the risk of further tragedies. Better protection against hurricanes will be an obvious discussion point over the coming months, to which as climatologists we are not particularly qualified to contribute. But climate science can help us understand how human actions influence climate. The current evidence strongly suggests that:
(a) hurricanes tend to become more destructive as ocean temperatures rise, and
(b) an unchecked rise in greenhouse gas concentrations will very likely increase ocean temperatures further, ultimately overwhelming any natural oscillations.

Technorati Tags: katrina, climate, climate_change, boingboing

L’altre dia una germana meva em va passar una vacuna fenomenal. Ella viu a València, així que viu de molt a prop el lamentable debat sobre si el valencià és català o no, debat que molts voldrien introduir a Menorca. Com que el tema és altament irritant ella ha arribat a una decisió molt sabia:

Només discuteixo sobre el valencià en valencià

En aquest país, ens agradi o no, es pot viure perfectament ignorant el català, per tant, tots els que utilitzem aquesta llengua és perquè volem, així que no acceptarem opinions de gent que passa olímpicament d’ella; si la volen ignorar, que ho facin del tot!

Això va per molta gent, però, sobretot, per aquells que ens volen ensenyar, escrivint en castellà, com s’escriu Maó en menorquí.

Al bloc High in Fibre (que he trobat cercant el perfil d’un usuari de last.fm) he trobat una nota que m’ha motivat molt:

Why?

Posted on 1 April 2005 in High in Fibre

I started working on the site with the aim of creating a personal website to be proud of; what started as a desire to make an attractive website has become a bit more…

In order to make a impressive looking site I wondered around ‘cool hunting’. I found some visually stunning sites and bookmarked them. On some of these sites the content was actually quiet interesting and I found myself returning to them more and more often. I kept coming across links to RSS/atom feeds and started to wonder what they were; so I downloaded NetNewsWire and the content suddenly became the only important thing. I began assembling a collection of feeds that I not only enjoyed reading, but also trusted. Then I finally ‘got’ what the whole new media revolution was about.

The revolution was about my new consumption habits: I had not owned a TV for 3 years, but courtesy of Bit Torrent I became hooked to Anime. My main hi-fi had no radio attached, but I never missed my favourite radio shows. I chose my new music purchases based on what Audioscrobbler recommend, not what the radio stations were pushing that week. The last newspaper I read was so old it was yellow, yet I still had knowledge of current affairs thanks to Google News.

I watched, listened and read what I wanted to when and where I wanted to.

What I found most exciting about the whole thing was that I could now be a contributor as well as a consumer. My aim is no longer just to create a website to be proud of, it is to become part of the community that I am proud of.

Llicència d’aquesta nota

Ara bé. Després m’he deprimit una mica. Prest s’inaugurarà IB3, un canal de TV fet per a valencianitzar les Illes Balears. Si una gran part de la població fos com Nandish, l’autor de la nota, no passaria res, estaríem tots vacunats. Ara bé, quanta gent té les habituts que tenim Nandish o jo? Què passarà amb la gent de la nostra edat que viu la cultura passiva d’IB3 i no a la cultura activa internàutica?

Això em fa recordar el sentit de projectes Ciberpunk, convé fer-ho, perquè, de vegades, ens perdem. La nostra obligació és fer entrar més i més gent a la cultura de la xarxa, a la cultura del fes-t’ho tu mateix, del decideix tot sol.

A la merda els intermediaris!

Actualització: Ara m’adono que en David explica el que jo volia dir però 10^6 vegades millor que jo… ;-) com sempre!

Estic jugant amb Dotclear i n’estic molt content. Si no esteu prou contents del vostre WP, pot ser és el que necessiteu. És ideal per a blogs multilingües.